East & Midwest Grain & Hay Prices, June 20, 2008

Grains and oilseeds lower on profit taking and outside markets: June 19, 2008
Brownfield news service on conventional grain

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling, along with the higher dollar and lower crude oil. There was a lack of fresh supportive news noted, in addition to the expectations for increased acreage due to all the crop loss in corn. Forecasts for the rest of the week look dry, with only light and scattered rainfall anticipated. China bought 2.24 million tons of 2008/09 beans ahead of the open, which was probably connected to Monday’s announcement that they would buy $4.5 billion of U.S. beans, but canceled on a 2007/08 purchase of 463,500 tons, sometimes more than they buy in an entire week. That could be attributed to a couple of things: either China’s attempting to step back buying due to high prices or they think Argentina’s farm strike could be resolved. While Argentina’s government and ag groups have both shown signs of softening rhetoric, farmers will continue to strike through Friday. Argentina’s the biggest exporter of soybean products but has been out of the market since mid-March due to the on again, off again strike with much of that being picked up by the U.S. Old crop continued to out gain new crop on the fairly tight near term supply and good demand. Soybean meal ended the day mixed; contracts were under profit taking pressure for most of the day, but nearbys rebounded late, hitting new contract highs on near term demand prospects. Soybean oil was down sharply on the lower soybeans and crude oil, along with some product spread trade. Argentina’s Ag Secretariat has lowered its 2007/08 soybean production estimate by a half million tons, down to 46.5 million tons. 99% of the crop has been harvested, with yields near the tail end of collections lower than expected.

Corn was lower on fund selling, profit taking and outside market direction. Additionally, corn was technically overbought after closing higher for eleven consecutive sessions. Midday forecasts were a bit drier than expected, but until we know the full extent of crop loss, traders will probably keep some weather premium in. According to Dow Jones Newswires, some uncertainty connected to a possible Congressional action related to the CFTC decision on speculative and index fund involvement in commodities was an another feature. Weekend weather should be fairly dry, but Dow Jones quotes one weather forecaster as saying that there’s the potential for widespread rain in some hard hit areas next week. Informa Economics is scheduled to put out a new U.S. acreage estimate Friday. Ethanol was lower on the nearly $5 decline in crude oil. The Argentine Ag Secretariat pegs 2007/08 corn production at 20.4 million tons, 400,000 less than their last guess. According to the Secretariat, 87% has been harvested and dry weather during pollination hurt yields.

The wheat complex was lower on technical selling and the firm dollar, in addition to the lower soybeans and corn. Corn and wheat remain tied by the feed relationship. There are some concerns about harvest delays for both hard and soft red winter, and wheat scab in Kansas, but not enough to break out of row crop’s influence, not to mention the bearish fundamental outlook for new crop winter wheat. Losses in Minneapolis were limited by good demand and tight near term supplies. Short covering was an additional feature at the MGEX. European wheat followed U.S. trade lower on a lack of fresh supportive news and the record expected world crop; November Paris was down 2.7% and November London lost 2.3%. Egypt canceled Thursday’s tender for at least 55,000 to 60,000 tons of wheat due to “unsuitable” prices, according to the government, via Dow Jones. A look at the breakdown of bids shows that U.S. supplies are mostly at a competitive disadvantage when compared to wheat from other origins. Shipping costs were also probably a factor. Argentina’s Ag Secretariat says that wheat planting will be down 16% from 2007/08 to 2008/09 due to low soil moisture, high input costs and lack of available fuel. Japan’s Ag Ministry bought a total of 227,000 tons of wheat. Most of that, 160,000 tons, was U.S. (83,000 tons dark northern spring, 56,000 tons western white and 21,000 tons semi hard). The remainder was from Canada (46,000 tons western red spring) and Australia (21,000 tons standard white). Arrival is slated for August and September.

Lakeview Organic Grain price list 6/9/08
119 Hamilton Place, Penn Yan, NY 14527
Phone: 315-531-1038

Upper Midwest (Des Moines, IA)
6/14/08
Organic grain and feedstuff prices were steady on light demand and offerings. Excessive rainfall and flooding are the focus points right now. Producers are still planting organic corn but most will not continue beyond this week. There are still a few weeks left to plant organic soybeans. There is some drying going on allowing producers to get back into the field. According to the most recent data from the USDA, the corn crop is rated at 57 percent good to excellent, compared to 60 percent last week and 70 percent a year ago. The soybean crop is rated 56 percent good to excellent, compared to 57 percent last week and 65 percent a year ago.
On June 13, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture, Bill Northey, announced that the USDA National Organic Program (NOP) has accepted a request made by the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship to grant a temporary variance to the NOP crop rotation requirement due to the recent rains and flooding in Iowa. Northey recognizes that organic farmers are committed to organic requirements, such as not using pesticides and this temporary variance will not affect the integrity of the organic crops they produce this year.

All prices FOB price per bushel except where stated (trucking cost needs to be added)

	June 14 08	May 2008	April 2008	March 2008	Feb 2008
Feed Grade Corn	10.73	10.49	10.26	10.37	10.07
Food Grade Soybeans		29.72	28.59	29.25	26.29
Feed Grade Soybeans		23.41	26.79	25.33	22.73
Feed Grade Oats				5.75	5.05
Feed Grade Barley	8.43		8.00	8.05	7.92
Food Grade Wheat			25.00	16.98	17.14
Feed Grade Wheat			15.75
Feed Grade Rye	12.15			11.00	11.00
Feed Grade Peas			13.50	9.00
Organic Alfalfa – Good		190-200/ton	200/ton
Organic Alfalfa – Utility		125-135/ton

Eastern Cornbelt (Springfield, IL)
6/14/08
Compared to two weeks ago, organic grain and feedstuff prices were steady. Trading activity was light for light to moderate offerings. Feed grade corn and soybeans prices were steady to firm. Weather concerns with heavy rainfall for many areas in the Midwest supported prices. Buying interest was moderate as dealers look to lock in new crop contracts. However, many producers elect not to lock in prices with the uncertainty of this year's crop. Reports of new crop contracts for food grade Soft Red
Wheat ranging from 13.00 to 14.00 per bushel and Soft White Wheat ranging from 14.00 to 15.00 per bushel. New crop feed grade soybeans from 24.00 to 25.00 per bushel.

All prices FOB price per bushel except where stated (trucking cost needs to be added)

	6/14/08	May 2008	April 2008	March 2008	1st qtr 2008
Feed Grade Corn	10.13	10.04	9.91	10.27	9.82
Food Grade Wheat		21.53		14.50	14.57
Feed Grade Wheat					10.73
Food Grade Soybeans			24.41		24.05
Feed Grade Soybeans		26.75		26.21	22.45
Soybean meal/ton				1106	1008.25
Feed Grade Oats	4.93	5.68	6.00	5.32
Organic Alfalfa – Good			185/ton
Organic Grass Hay – Utility			125/ton

Hay Price 5/3/08

Northern CA -premium Alfalfa hay	270/ton
Eastern and Lake County Oregon - premium Alfalfa	200/ton
Nevada – Premium Alfalfa	230/ton
Nevada – Fair Alfalfa	200/ton

May 2008 organic grain prices compared to February/April 2007

% Change
Eastern Corn Belt April 07 to May 08
Corn	54.02%
Soybean	101.76%
Soybean meal	71.89%
Wheat	115.45
Barley	16.67%
Oats	75.64%
Upper Mid West Feb 07 to May 08
Corn	70.13%
Soybean	44.71%
Wheat	167.40%
Oats	69.12%
Barley	85.61%

Northeast Organic grain price 2005-2008

Year	12% CP Grain	16% CP Grain	18% CP Grain
2005	$ 310	$ 330	$ 349
2006	$ 350	$ 380	$ 395
2007	$ 360	$ 393	$ 412
2008	$ 547	$ 588	$ 608
% increase 2005-2008	73.22%	78.18%	74.21%

Located below are the links to latest organic price reports.
Upper Midwest Organic Grain and Feedstuff http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_gr113.txt
Eastern Corn Belt Organic Grain Feedstuff http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/gx_gr120.txt
National Hay, Feed & Seed Weekly Summary http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswfeedseed.pdf