By Ed Maltby, NODPA Executive Director
The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reports estimated US retail sales of total organic milk products for September 2020 were 237 million pounds, down 1.0 percent from September 2019, but up 0.4 percent year-to- date. Organic whole milk retail sales for September 2020, 103 million pounds, were up 6.5 percent compared to a year earlier and up 14.1 percent compared with year-to-date 2019. Reduced fat milk (2%) sales were 84 million pounds, up 12.6 percent from the previous year and up 15.9 percent year-to-date.
The largest utilization of Class 1 milk is the Northeast Federal Milk Marketing Order 1 (FMMO) and they are one of the only orders that publish utilization of organic milk in that area. In August, September, and October 2020, utilization was lower than any 3 months in 2020. Organic milk utilization was down 16% over August, September and October 2019, with Reduced Fat Milk (RFM) dropping by 7% and Whole Milk by 26%. While the COVID stay at home period in the earlier part of the year may have seen a significant increase in sales of organic milk, especially RFM, the last three months have seen a drop in the utilization of organic milk especially whole milk. The November 2020 in-store surveys of selected supermarkets in twenty-nine U.S. cities reveal that the retail prices of organic whole milk, in half gallon containers, range from $3.13 in Atlanta, GA, to $5.84 in Pittsburgh, PA. The U.S. simple average price, $4.05, is up a penny from October 2020. The largest price increase, over the previous month, for organic whole milk in half gallon containers occurred in New Orleans, LA, 70 cents. The largest price decline, 35 cents, was seen in Baltimore, MD and Washington DC.
In October 2020, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published the results of the 2019 Organic Census. The purpose of the survey as defined in the report itself is “The 2019 Certified Organic Survey is a special study conducted by U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and is part of the 2017 Census of Agriculture program. The primary purpose of the survey is to collect value of sales information at the commodity level along with acreage, production, and practices data for a variety of certified organic crop and livestock operations.” What this statement does not reflect is the years of advocacy and work with USDA and Congress to obtain regularly updated and independent statistics that can be used by organic producers, USDA agencies, organic input suppliers and Congress. Whereas in the past, surveys were done by the USDA’s Risk Management Agency, this survey by USDA NASS provides consistency in how the data is collected and tabulated. The 2019 Organic Survey publishes data from producers that were certified organic and transitioning to organic certification. The 2016 and 2015 Certified Organic Surveys published data from certified organic farms and ranches. The 2014 Organic Survey published data from producers that were certified organic, exempt from certification, and transitioning to organic certification.
There were 16,585 organic farms in 2019 farming 5,495,274 organic acres in the US. For organic dairy there are not too many surprises. In the US there were 3,134 organic certified dairy farms with 337, 540 milk cows on 12/31/2019 an increase of 575 farms and 70,017 in the number of milk cows, an average of 121 dairy cows per new operation from 12/31/2016. The average pay price for the northeast supply at 12/31/2016 was $38 per cwt; on 12/31/2019 it was $32 per cwt.
Comparison between 2016 and 2019 number of organic dairy herd and
numbers of organic cows for selected states
|
|
12/31/2019 |
12/31/2016 |
Difference between 2019 and 2016 |
||||||
|
|
Farm |
Cows |
Herd size |
Farm |
Cows |
Herd size |
Farms |
Cows |
Herd Size |
|
California |
152 |
56,496 |
372 |
106 |
48,741 |
460 |
+46 |
7,755 |
-88 |
|
Colorado |
8 |
16,934 |
2,117 |
6 |
|||||
|
Connecticut |
1 |
- |
1 |
- |
0 |
- |
0 |
||
|
Idaho |
29 |
20,150 |
695 |
20 |
6,497 |
325 |
+9 |
13,653 |
+370 |
|
Indiana |
253 |
11,623 |
46 |
225 |
8,855 |
39 |
+28 |
2,768 |
7 |
|
Iowa |
107 |
5,321 |
50 |
76 |
3,445 |
45 |
+31 |
1,876 |
4 |
|
Maine |
88 |
4,983 |
57 |
63 |
3,594 |
57 |
+25 |
1,389 |
0 |
|
Maryland |
27 |
2,653 |
98 |
15 |
1,453 |
97 |
+12 |
1,200 |
1 |
|
Massachusetts |
14 |
710 |
51 |
7 |
396 |
57 |
+7 |
314 |
-6 |
|
Michigan |
93 |
5,078 |
55 |
70 |
4,384 |
63 |
+23 |
694 |
-8 |
|
Minnesota |
127 |
10,407 |
82 |
108 |
9,998 |
93 |
+19 |
409 |
-11 |
|
New Hampshire |
22 |
964 |
44 |
14 |
558 |
40 |
+8 |
406 |
4 |
|
New Mexico |
5 |
7,616 |
1,523 |
2 |
+3 |
||||
|
New York |
610 |
32,419 |
53 |
486 |
24,944 |
51 |
+124 |
7,475 |
2 |
|
Ohio |
264 |
11,400 |
43 |
212 |
9,382 |
44 |
+52 |
2,018 |
-1 |
|
Oregon |
40 |
18,776 |
469 |
47 |
20,408 |
434 |
-7 |
-1,632 |
35 |
|
Pennsylvania |
362 |
16,685 |
46 |
303 |
14,807 |
49 |
+59 |
1,878 |
-3 |
|
Texas |
9 |
41,819 |
4,647 |
6 |
27,704 |
4,617 |
+3 |
14,115 |
29 |
|
Vermont |
175 |
13,789 |
79 |
173 |
12,243 |
71 |
+2 |
1,546 |
8 |
|
Washington |
45 |
9184 |
204 |
41 |
8,774 |
214 |
+4 |
410 |
-10 |
|
Wisconsin |
530 |
31,747 |
60 |
455 |
27,049 |
59 |
+75 |
4,698 |
0 |
On a brighter note, Michael Langemeier, Purdue University Ag Economist; and Michael O’Donnell, Purdue University Extension Educator have published a report entitled “Conventional vs. Organic Grains: 5-Year Comparison Of Returns.” Due to continued increases in demand for certified organic grains, crop farmers that have transitioned from conventional to certified organic grains report higher net returns per acre. Despite this, certified organic land accounts for less than 2 percent of U.S. farmland. The full article can be found at https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2020/09/conventional-and-organic-enterprise-net-returns.html
Some extracts below:
Table 1 shows the average conventional and organic crop yields for alfalfa, corn, oats, soybeans, and winter wheat. The ratio illustrated in the last column of the table was computed by dividing the organic crop yield by the conventional crop yield. Alfalfa and oats exhibited the smallest differences in crop yields between conventional and organic crops. The yield drags for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat ranged from 29 to 32 percent.
Gross revenue, total expense, and net return to land per unit for alfalfa, corn, oats, soybeans, and winter wheat are presented in Table 2. Gross revenue includes crop revenue, crop insurance indemnity payments, government payments, and miscellaneous income. Total expenses include all cash and opportunity costs, other than those associated with owned farmland. Farmland costs included in the total expense reported in Table 2 were comprised of cash rent, real estate taxes, and interest, which would be lower than the full opportunity cost on owned land.
Attached Files:
