Grains and oilseeds close sharply higher on weather worries: June 13, 2008
Soybeans were sharply higher on speculative and technical buying; in addition to continued rainfall in the Cornbelt pulling contracts up after a fairly weak open. July out gained deferred contracts on strong near term demand prospects. Talk of demand rationing in new crop was an additional feature. Analysts expect the USDA to lower the crop condition rating in Monday afternoon’s crop update. According to Dow Jones Newswires, analysts expect that more than 12 million acres of soybeans could need to be planted, for either the second or first time. Soybean oil had an up and down day, with contracts following the disparate directions of soybeans and crude, eventually settling weak. Soybean meal was up on demand prospects, potentially as a corn replacement in feed and concerns over the current U.S. crop. Consulting firm JCI Shanghai reports that China booked two to three cargoes of soybeans this week. They were from the U.S. and Brazil, with delivery set for July. Demand for U.S. supplies remains good at a time when sales usually decline on the fairly weak dollar and the uncertainty surrounding Argentina's farm strike..
Corn was higher on fund and technical buying, hitting new record highs. In open outcry, July topped at $7.37 and in electronic trade, the high was $7.37 and ½. The big issue continues to be widespread flooding in some of the largest U.S. Cornbelt production areas. The USDA’s already lowered its production estimate once, and it’s a foregone conclusion to the trade that’ll be even lower in the June 30 update – the question is just how much. With so much concern over supply, not to mention expectations for sub-1 billion bushel 2008/09 ending stocks, corn easily shrugged off outside markets and early attempts at end of the week profit taking. Friday marked the fifth straight day of new all time highs.
The wheat complex was higher on technical support and fund buying, along with spillover from corn and beans. Weather’s also an issue for wheat in portions of the Plains that are either harvesting winter wheat or where spring wheat is developing. Additionally, many areas of the soft red winter belt have received heavy rain. Weather in Argentina is an issue as well, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reducing their planted area significantly due to drier than normal conditions. The CBOT was the clear leader, feeding off the strength in row crops. Contracts were lower heading in to midday, but were unable to ignore weather, corn and soybeans. European wheat also opened lower prior to feeding off the U.S. strength; November Paris was .5% higher and November London was up fractionally, but below Thursday’s high. The Canadian Wheat Board has joined the chorus of groups expecting a record world wheat crop this year. The CWB sees the crop at 663 million tons, in line with most major estimates, thanks to improved growing weather for large portions of Europe, Asia and Australia after two years of fairly poor growing conditions. They do note that heavy rain in the U.S. and poor subsoil moisture in the Dakotas and Canada could reduce yields. There are also hot and dry conditions stressing wheat in sections of North Africa and the Middle East. The CWB does expect world stocks to remain fairly tight due to low carryover from the previous marketing year, rising consumption and generally strong demand. They also see prices remaining fairly high, but probably not approaching the record levels hit in the last year. According to Dow Jones, the cost of ocean shipping wheat from the Kansas via the Pacific to Japan went down 17% in first quarter 2008 when compared to fourth quarter 2007. From Kansas to Japan via the Gulf, the cost was down 15% on the quarter. Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities has purchased 120,000 tons of wheat from Russia. The GASC paid $329 per ton and delivery is set for mid-to-late July. Around the world, demand for wheat is solid, on generally tight supplies and steady to rising consumption.
Lakeview Organic Grain price list 6/9/08
119 Hamilton Place, Penn Yan, NY 14527
Phone: 315-531-1038
Organic corn |
$440/ton |
Organic roasted soybeans |
$910/ton |
Organic 48% soybean meal |
$1,320/ton |
Organic roasted dry beans |
$530/ton |
Organic flaxmeal |
$760/ton |
Organic barley |
$460/ton |
Organic oats |
$410/ton |
Organic sunflowermeal |
$545/ton |
Upper Midwest (Des Moines, IA)
5/31/08
Organic grain and feedstuff prices were steady on light demand and offerings with not much movement happening. Producers want to talk but they are nervous and don't want to sell any crop right now. They either believe they have a crop worth a great deal of money due to short supply or they are worried they won't be able to get a crop in the ground because of the excessive rain. Organic corn plantings are falling behind now. Soybeans aren't behind yet but getting close. According to the USDA, conventional soybean plantings are 69 percent complete, compared to the five year average of 81 percent. There are still opportunities to plant shorter growing season soybeans but producers will have to look hard to find the seed. Some organic oats were planted last week in Iowa with producers hoping to get a good crop because of the late season cool, wet weather. New crop soybeans being contracted for $22.00 to $25.00 per bushel. New crop oats being contracted for $4.00 to $4.50 per bushel. Hearing about lots of organic livestock, chickens and cattle, being converted back to conventional from organic due to high feed costs.
All prices FOB price per bushel except where stated (trucking cost needs to be added)
May 31 2008 |
April 2008 |
March 2008 |
Feb 2008 |
|
Feed Grade Corn |
10.51 |
10.26 |
10.37 |
10.07 |
Food Grade Soybeans |
30.00 |
28.59 |
29.25 |
26.29 |
Feed Grade Soybeans |
|
26.79 |
25.33 |
22.73 |
Feed Grade Oats |
|
|
5.75 |
5.05 |
Feed Grade Barley |
|
8.00 |
8.05 |
7.92 |
Food Grade Wheat |
|
25.00 |
16.98 |
17.14 |
Feed Grade Wheat |
|
15.75 |
|
|
Feed Grade Rye |
|
|
11.00 |
11.00 |
Feed Grade Peas |
|
13.50 |
9.00 |
|
Organic Alfalfa – Good |
190-200/ton |
200/ton |
|
|
Organic Alfalfa – Utility |
125-135/ton |
|
|
|
Eastern Cornbelt (Springfield, IL)
5/31/08
Compared to two weeks ago, organic grain and feedstuff prices were steady to higher. Demand was light to moderate for light offerings. Feed grade corn was steady with moderate supplies. Good demand helped to push soybean prices higher. Heavy rainfall has delayed planting progress through central and southern Illinois. Many producers are unable to commit to long term contracts due to the uncertainty of their field crops. Reports of new crop contracts for feed grade corn ranging from 10.00 to 10.75 per bushel.
All prices FOB price per bushel except where stated (trucking cost needs to be added)
May 31 2008 |
April 2008 |
March 2008 |
Feb 2008 |
January 2008 |
|
Feed Grade Corn |
10.00 |
10.50 |
10.27 |
9.77 |
9.69 |
Food Grade Wheat |
21.53 |
|
14.50 |
13.75 |
14.88 |
Feed Grade Wheat |
|
|
|
|
13.67 |
Food Grade Soybeans |
29.00 |
25.00 |
|
24.41 |
23.84 |
Feed Grade Soybeans |
|
|
26.21 |
24.45 |
20.76 |
Soybean meal/ton |
|
|
1106 |
915 |
905 |
Feed Grade Oats |
5.68 |
6.00 |
5.32 |
|
|
Organic Alfalfa – Good |
|
185/ton |
|
|
|
Organic Grass Hay – Utility |
|
125/ton |
|
|
|
Hay Price 5/3/08
Northern CA -premium Alfalfa hay |
270/ton |
Eastern and Lake County Oregon - premium Alfalfa |
200/ton |
Nevada – Premium Alfalfa |
230/ton |
Nevada – Fair Alfalfa |
200/ton |
May 2008 organic grain prices compared to February/April 2007
% Change |
|
Eastern Corn Belt April 07 to May 08 |
|
Corn |
54.02% |
Soybean |
101.76% |
Soybean meal |
71.89% |
Wheat |
115.45 |
Barley |
16.67% |
Oats |
75.64% |
|
|
Upper Mid West Feb 07 to May 08 |
|
Corn |
70.13% |
Soybean |
44.71% |
Wheat |
167.40% |
Oats |
69.12% |
Barley |
85.61% |
Northeast Organic grain price 2005-2008
Year |
12% CP Grain |
16% CP Grain |
18% CP Grain |
2005 |
$ 310 |
$ 330 |
$ 349 |
2006 |
$ 350 |
$ 380 |
$ 395 |
2007 |
$ 360 |
$ 393 |
$ 412 |
2008 |
$ 490 |
$ 565 |
$ 598 |
% increase 2005-2008 |
58.06% |
71.21% |
71.35% |
Located below are the links to latest organic price reports.
Upper Midwest Organic Grain and Feedstuff http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_gr113.txt
Eastern Corn Belt Organic Grain Feedstuff http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/gx_gr120.txt
National Hay, Feed & Seed Weekly Summary http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswfeedseed.pdf