By Ed Maltby, NODPA Executive Director
December sales of organic fluid milk, nationally, are disappointing despite significant increased utilization of organic fluid milk in the northeast in 2022 compared to 2021. The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported on 2/22/2023 that in December 2022, estimated fluid product sales of organic milk decreased by 9.4% over December 2021, with a minus 2% for the year-to-date December 2022 over 2021. Organic whole milk sales, at 111 million pounds in December 2022, were 4.8% lower than the December 2021, but had an overall growth of 2% in 2022 over 2021. Reduced fat milk sales were 118 million pounds in December 2022, falling 12.3 percent from December 2021, and 5% down in retail sales for 2022 compared to 2021.
|
Product Name |
Sales of Organic Fluid Milk |
Change from |
||
|
|
Dec-22 |
2022 Year to date |
Dec-22 |
Year to date |
|
|
Million pounds |
Percent |
||
|
Organic Whole Milk |
111 |
1346 |
-4.8% |
2% |
|
Flavored Whole milk |
1 |
15 |
-73.8% |
-21.60% |
|
Organic Reduced Fat Milk (2%) |
76 |
946 |
-10.2% |
-3.40% |
|
Organic Low Fat Milk (1%) |
24 |
289 |
-13.7% |
-9.70% |
|
Organic Fat Free Milk Skim |
13 |
165 |
-13.7% |
-8.10% |
|
Organic Flavored Fat-Reduced Milk |
5 |
82 |
-30.0% |
-0.20% |
|
Other Fluid Organic Milk Products |
0 |
2 |
-14.2% |
32.20% |
|
Total Fat Reduced Milk |
118 |
1485 |
-12.3% |
-5% |
|
Total Organic Milk Products |
230 |
2,846 |
-9.4% |
-2% |
Federal Milk Market Order 1, in New England, reports utilization of types of organic milk by pool plants. During December 2022, fluid organic whole milk utilization totaled 16.67 million pounds, up from 14.66 million pounds the previous year. The utilization of fluid organic reduced fat milk, 17.11 million pounds, increased from 16.70 million pounds a year ago. During 2022, organic whole milk utilization increased by 26.66 million pounds, totaling 189.79 million pounds, up from 163.77 million pounds the previous year. The utilization of fluid organic reduced fat milk during 2022 increased by 2.59 million pounds from the previous year, totaling 196.11 million pounds, compared to 193.52 million pounds a year ago. That is a respectful 8% increase from 2021 to 2022 in fluid milk utilization. It says nothing about where the milk originated from. In January 2023, we saw an increase in utilization of organic fluid whole milk by 3.89 million pounds to 17.64 million pounds, and an increase of 3.97 million pounds in the utilization of organic reduced fat milk, to 19.36 million pounds.
|
UTILIZATION OF ORGANIC FLUID MILK PRODUCTS BY POOL PLANTS IN FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDER 1 - NORTHEAST (Million pounds) |
||||||
|
|
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2023 |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2022 |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2021 |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2020 |
Increase/Decrease of 2023 over 2022 |
Increase/Decrease of 2022 over 2021 |
|
JANUARY |
37.00 |
29.14 |
31.32 |
23.93 |
26.97% |
-7% |
|
FEBRUARY |
|
33.65 |
31.56 |
26.69 |
|
7% |
|
MARCH |
|
31.56 |
31.87 |
27.90 |
|
-1% |
|
APRIL |
|
33.23 |
28.97 |
29.35 |
|
15% |
|
MAY |
|
30.49 |
29.72 |
28.25 |
|
3% |
|
JUNE |
|
31.53 |
28.41 |
26.90 |
|
11% |
|
JULY |
|
29.44 |
25.50 |
26.70 |
|
15% |
|
AUGUST |
|
32.12 |
27.18 |
24.70 |
|
18% |
|
SEPTEMBER |
|
35.00 |
30.26 |
29.70 |
|
16% |
|
OCTOBER |
|
34.83 |
29.47 |
25.78 |
|
18% |
|
NOVEMBER |
|
31.13 |
31.07 |
24.47 |
|
0.18% |
|
DECEMBER |
|
33.78 |
31.36 |
28.13 |
|
8% |
|
ANNUAL |
|
385.90 |
356.68 |
322.50 |
|
8% |
Mercaris supplies data on the average pay price for organic milk over the spot price. There was not a significant amount of trading on the Spot Market in October but some in November and December 2022. Processors and buyers report that organic milk is short in the Northeast.
|
U.S. Organic Dairy Prices (U.S. Dollars per CWT) |
||
|
Date |
Spot Fluid Milk Price |
Fluid Milk Pay Price |
|
Mar-22 |
$ 33.21 |
$ 28.54 |
|
Apr-22 |
$ 32.72 |
$ 29.59 |
|
May-22 |
$ 33.88 |
$ 28.77 |
|
Jun-22 |
$ 35.88 |
$ 29.05 |
|
Jul-22 |
$ 35.88 |
$ 28.37 |
|
Aug-22 |
$ 37.05 |
$ 29.66 |
|
Sep-22 |
$ 37.05 |
$ 29.66 |
|
Oct-22 |
$ 36.08 |
$ 29.66 |
|
Nov-22 |
$ 36.08 |
$ 29.66 |
|
Dec-22 |
$ 35.15 |
$ 31.60 |
|
Jan-23 |
$ 34.98 |
$ 31.60 |
|
Data from Mercarus 2/24/2023 |
||
AMS reports organic milk retail prices for selected U.S. cities. The January 2023 in-store retail surveys showed the average retail price increased to $4.81. Pittsburgh, PA had the highest average retail price for January 2023 at $6.49 per half gallon, while many states had the lowest retail price of $3.99 per half gallon. In the northeast, the retail price average in New England and New York is $4.80 per half gallon.
USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) responded to the report language in the Omnibus spending bill in December 2022, requiring USDA to find sources of funding to help organic dairy farmers by announcing plans to distribute funding on Monday, January 23rd. The newly announced Organic Dairy Marketing Assistance Program (ODMAP), which has funding of $100 million, will be administered by USDA’s FSA. The program will cover up to 75 percent of projected 2023 marketing costs for eligible organic dairy producers - targeting small and mid-sized operations. The $100 million will probably be paid in dollars per cwt based on anticipated milk production based on FSA’s estimated marketing dollars. The payment using Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) funds will go to Congress sometime in March 2023 for approval and a program will be published ‘later in 2023’. In separate state initiatives, both Vermont, initiated by NOFA VT, and Maine, proposed by MOFGA, have had proposals before their annual budget committees for targeted relief for organic dairy producers in 2023.
Mercaris reports that U.S. organic soybean imports increased 27% y/y over 2021/22 (Sep-Aug marketing year), following declining organic soybean meal imports and escalating U.S. organic soybean crush. Imports from Africa increased 163% y/y to 29,000 metric ton (MT-1 metric ton = 2,200 pounds of soybeans) with 72% of African-sourced organic soybeans entering the U.S. through Gulf Coast ports (6,000 MT) according to USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) data. Over 2021/22, the share of imported African organic soybeans entering the U.S. across the Canadian border reached 22%, up from 2% the year prior but there was a decline in imports of Canadian organic soybeans. Over the first four months of 2022/23 marketing year, imports from Africa have accounted for 40% of the organic soybeans Canada has exported to the US. Imports of Canadian organic soybeans declined by 44% y/y to less than 8,000 MT. Organic whole and cracked corn imports nearly doubled over January 2023 reaching 22,000 metric tons with an increase in organic crack corn imports of nearly 18,000 metric tons from Turkey,
Organic feed corn was $11.02/bushel FOB the farm in February 2023. Despite an increase in January, U.S. organic corn imports remained down 13% compared to the year prior, through the first five months of 2022/23. Organic soybean imports slumped to less than 2,000 MT over January, as organic soybean imports from Argentina were expected to slow seasonally.
Organic feed soybean was trading at $26.15/bushel FOB the farm in February 2023, and organic soybean meal is averaging $1,255 per short ton (ST). Organic soybean meal imports of 82,000 MT year to date matched the previous year with supplies from the Black Sea region exceeding 13,000 MT, and continued imports from Africa which reached 3,000 MT.
Attached Files:
