Feed and Pay Price, September, 2024

By Ed Maltby, NODPA Executive Director

The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has published estimated national organic fluid product sales, for May and June 2024, compiled with data from the Federal Milk Marketing Order. In May, the data shows a continued increase in the sales of organic Whole Milk packaged fluid products of 20.2% percent over May 2023 and, less dramatically and more in line with the time of year, the June data shows sales at 4.6% over June 2023. There was no percentage increase in organic Fat Reduced Milk in May 2024 over May 2023, but a 4% increase in June 2024 over June 2023. Year to date, June 2024, organic fluid milk sales are 6% higher than the same period in 2023.

Total US sales of organic fluid milk products were 263 million pounds in May 2024, with organic Whole Milk sales at 139 million pounds, and sales of organic Fat Reduced Milk at 123 million pounds. In June 2024, total sales of organic packaged milk were 234 million pounds, with sales of organic packaged Whole Milk at 117 million pounds, and sales of organic Fat Reduce Milk at 115 million pounds. The continued increase in sales of organic packaged milk by 6.0% year to date, led by sales of Whole Milk, are counter to sales of non-organic packaged milk which is statistically level year-to-date from June 2024 data. Industry reports that there is a shortage of conventional fluid milk in the Northeast in August 2024, with processors sourcing milk from Virginia for their school and institutional accounts. Reports from producers are that organic milk is still short in the Northeast, with fluid milk retail sales increasing.

The average retail price for organic milk has ranged from $3.81 per half gallon in 2008 to $4.81 year-to-date in 2024. In July 2024, the average national retail price was $4.86, and in August it was $4.84. In July and August 2024, the highest retail price was in Pittsburgh PA at $6.59 per ½ gallon, and the lowest in 9 separate cities was $3.99 per ½ gallon. The retail prices in other Northeast cities were $5.01 in Boston, MA; $5.13 in Hartford, CT; $5.24 in New York, NY and $4.28 in Syracuse, NY.

Product Name	Sales of Organic Fluid Milk		Change from
	May-24	2024 Year to date	May-23	Year to date
	Million pounds		Percent
Organic Whole Milk	139	661	20.2%	14.2%
Flavored Whole milk	1	4	31.1%	11.5%
Organic Reduced-Fat Milk (2%)	84	400	4.9%	3.4%
Organic Low-Fat Milk (1%)	21	107	-11.4%	-9.8%
Organic Fat-Free Milk Skim	11	57	-6.0%	-13.4%
Organic Flavored Fat-Reduced Milk	7	33	1.1%	-306.0%
Other Fluid Organic Milk Products	0	2	71.9%	42.4%
Total Fat Reduced Milk	123	597	0.5%	-1.4%
Total Organic Milk Products	263	1,264	10.2%	6.3%
Product Name	Sales of Organic Fluid Milk		Change from
	Jun-24	2024 Year to date	Jun-23	Year to date
	Million pounds		Percent
Organic Whole Milk	117	778	4.6%	12.7%
Flavored Whole milk	1	5	19.1%	12.4%
Organic Reduced-Fat Milk (2%)	78	478	7.6%	4.0%
Organic Low-Fat Milk (1%)	20	127	-10.0%	-9.8%
Organic Fat-Free Milk Skim	10	67	-6.4%	-12.3%
Organic Flavored Fat-Reduced Milk	7	41	47.2%	2.9%
Other Fluid Organic Milk Products	0	2	-77.8%	6.8%
Total Fat Reduced Milk	115	712	4.5%	-0.5%
Total Organic Milk Products	234	1,497	4.40%	6.0%

Data may not add due to rounding to the nearest million pounds

Federal Milk Market Order 1, in the Northeast, reports utilization of types of organic milk reported by pool plants for packaged products sold and packaged in the FMMO 1. Data on organic milk in the other classes is not published separated by production practice, neither is milk that comes into the order already packaged to be sold in the order. FMMO 1 reported that in June 2024, fluid organic Whole Milk utilization totaled 15.81 million pounds, 14% lower than the previous year of 17.62 million pounds. In June 2024, the utilization of fluid organic Fat Reduced Milk, 15.70 million pounds, was down from 16.97 million pounds in June 2023. Total organic packaged milk utilization of 31.51 million pounds in June 2024 was down from 34.59 million pounds in June 2023. In July 2024, organic Whole Milk utilization was 19.57 million pounds, an increase of approximately 15% on July 2023 which was 16.63 million pounds. In July 2024 organic Fat Reduced Milk utilization was 15.97 million pounds, higher than the 14.511 in July 2023. Total organic packaged milk in July 2024 of 35.54 million pounds was up from 30.75 million pounds in July 2023. Year to date, January to July 2024, there was a total of 242.93 million pounds of packaged organic fluid milk sold in FMMO 1, an increase of 1.41% over the same period in 2023. In June 2024, there was 122.66 million pounds of milk marketed as Class 1 in FMMO 1 from outside the FMMO 1 marketing area, and in July 2024 there was 132.595 million pounds in the same category, approximately 19% of total Class 1 utilization in the Order.

UTILIZATION OF ORGANIC FLUID MILK PRODUCTS AND CREAM BY POOL PLANTS (Million pounds) in FMMO 1 (Northeast) not including packaged out of order
Month	Fluid retail Organic Milk 2024	Fluid retail Organic Milk 2023	Fluid retail Organic Milk 2022	Fluid retail Organic Milk 2021	Fluid retail Organic Milk 2020
JANUARY	34.93	37.00	29.14	31.32	23.93
FEBRUARY	31.50	31.65	33.65	31.56	26.69
MARCH	34.82	37.37	31.56	31.87	27.90
APRIL	35.68	31.51	33.23	28.97	29.35
MAY	38.95	36.24	30.49	29.72	28.25
JUNE	31.51	34.59	31.53	28.41	26.90
JULY	35.54	30.75	29.44	25.50	26.70
AUGUST		33.75	32.12	27.18	24.70
SEPTEMBER		28.32	35.00	30.26	29.70
OCTOBER		33.54	34.83	29.47	25.78
NOVEMBER		31.19	31.13	31.07	24.47
DECEMBER		33.56	33.78	31.36	28.13
ANNUAL		399.47	385.90	356.68	322.50

Central Federal Order (FO) 32, Mideast FO 33, and California FO 51, have also started publishing reports of the utilization of organic milk separately by month and year. FO 5, Appalachian, has organic under “Restricted data due to less than 3 handlers. Data is included in the buttermilk packaged disposition.” FO 32 and FO 51 publish volumes of organic fluid milk sales on routes inside the order and those sold in other orders. The Southwest FO 126, (Texas and New Mexico), the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington) FO124, Arizona, FO 131, Southeast, FO 7, Florida, FO 6 and the Upper Midwest, FO 30, do not publish separate data of their fluid packaging of organic milk from conventional milk, but they do report to the AMS Market Information Branch to compile the National Estimated Fluid Milk Product Sales Report on a monthly basis. Nonorganic milk has only a national average of 25% utilization as Class 1 but an estimated 60-65% of organic milk is classified as Class 1.

In July the highest volume of organic milk reported as Class 1 was in the Central FO 32, with 52.68 million pounds. Aurora’s two processing plants and 25,000 milking cows are in that FO. The next highest published report on organic packaged sales is California FO with 39.53 million pounds followed by the Northeast FO 1 with 35.54 million pounds.

The chart below shows a consistent volume of organic packaged milk marketed out of Order FO 32, more than is packaged in either FO 1 or FO 51. Sales of packaged organic fluid milk are increasing nationally. Handlers in the Central FO sold 523 million pounds of organic packaged milk outside of their order in 2023. We can only guesstimate the final destination of that organic packaged milk, assumed to be almost exclusively ESL packaged, as the FMMO currently does not publish reports that separate organic from conventional milk coming into the orders. This makes it impossible to independently gauge regional demand for increased supply.

UTILIZATION OF ORGANIC FLUID MILK PRODUCTS AND CREAM BY POOL PLANTS (Million pounds) in FMMO 32 (Central)
Month	2024	2024 in order	2024 out of order	2023	2023 in order	2023 out of order	2022
January	56.23	6.41	49.82	55.21	6.51	48.70
February	51.88	5.77	46.12	49.11	5.49	43.63
March	53.96	5.93	46.29	52.73	5.59	45.44
April	54.13	6.04	48.09	49.18	5.64	43.53	51.93
May	51.32	5.81	45.51	48.21	5.40	42.78	51.13
June	52.56	5.51	47.04	45.20	5.57	39.63	51.58
July	52.68	5.63	47.04	48.45	5.70	42.75	49.67
August				48.47	5.63	42.85	52.16
September				48.76	5.58	43.18	51.04
October				49.73	5.65	42.48	52.06
November				49.60	5.48	44.12	52.31
December				54.17	6.08	48.10	55.94
Total				598.82	68.31	527.18

In recent reports from a NOFA-NY-certified livestock auction in New Berlin, New York, organic cull cows consistently sold above conventional cows in July and August 2024. The average price for conventional cull cows ranged from a low of $100/cwt to a high of $117 /cwt. The average price for organic cull cows ranged from a low of $97/cwt at one out of 9 auctions to a high of $125/cwt, with most auction prices over $115 per cwt. Calf prices are still strong but no premium for organic. Organic milking cows were selling well at an average of $1,386-$2,700 each in July and August 2024. USDA AMS reported from a Pacific Northwest livestock auction that the top 10 organic cull cows traded higher than conventional cull cows, and the overall average for organic cull cow prices traded higher than the overall average for conventional cull cows. The average price for the top 10 organic cows auctioned was $198.90 per hundredweight, compared to an average price of $143.42 per hun­dredweight for auctioned top 10 conventional cows. The average weight for the top 10 conventional cows was 1655.5 pounds compared to 1,493.5 pounds for the top 10 organic cows. The overall price for organic cows auctioned was $160.22 per hundredweight with an average weight of 1,255.75 pounds, while the overall price for conventional cows auctioned was $114.67 per hundred­weight and had an average weight of 1,311.08 pounds.

Organic Dairy News

Producers report that there is movement to different buyers. There are reports from Vermont that Upstate Cooperative is looking to pick up some producers in the Vermont/New York border area.

Maple Hill reports that they continue to increase the signing of producers in Pennsylvania and New York, with their unique incentive plan as they expand their supply in that region. Maple Hill are also proposing that from 10/1/24 they will change the way they charge producers for their milk hauling from farm to processor. Currently it is a 75/25 split between the producer and Maple Hill. It will change to a 50/50 split, so half of the cost of hauling instead of 75%. For many producers this will be a significant saving.

CROPP Cooperative announced the addition of 14 new farms to their routes in central Pennsylvania, with an aver­age herd size of around 50 cows per farm. They plan to expand to more farms in the area.

There’s news of another vertically integrated organic dairy and processing project in Idaho that is following the successful example of Aurora Dairy packaging ESL Class 1 and 2 organic dairy products. The new, vertically integrated 190,000-square-foot facility on 23 acres in Burley known as Suntando opened in June 2024. It began processing milk from the two owners, Dirk Hurtado and Jesus Reitsma, who, respectively, own 30,000 conventional dairy cows and 6,000 organic dairy cows within 20 miles of the facility. The plant processes milk, cream and dairy-based beverages into shelf-stable and extended shelf-life packages ranging in size from half gallon to single-serve 8-ounce containers. The company doesn’t have its own brand. Instead, it works with retailers and national brands to create private-label beverage products.

The Vermont Monthly Organic Dairy Report is part of a new pilot program in partnership with the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Market News to collect organic market data for the 2023/2024 growing seasons. The pilot programs are mostly concentrated in Pennsylvania at farmers markets, and are part of the Organic Data Initiative sponsored by the 2018 Farm Bill. The Vermont project’s first report was in April 2024, reporting on the last few months of 2023 and January 2024 with just 9 farms reporting. With admirable transparency, they reported that the number of farms reporting has varied due to staff changes and the most recent report published in August 2024 does not disclose how many farms are reporting but shows important data (see the chart below). There is a disclaimer that the data has not been collected or verified by the USDA, and its accuracy is the responsibility of the partnering institution. Thanks to VT Department of Agriculture for partnering with USDA. For more details be in touch with Josh Knight at Josh.Knight@vermont.gov, (802) 636-7793.

Vermont Monthly Organic Dairy Report

Month	Volume(lbs.)	Ave. daily production per cow (lbs.)	Min Price	Max Price	Weighted Av Price	Ave. Butterfat	Ave. Protein
Nov-23	1,155,583	39.6	$ 27.92	$ 43.60	$ 37.01
Dec-23	1,227,212	39.3	$ 27.92	$ 47.13	$ 39.70
Jan-24	1,224,497	40.2	$ 35.00	$ 47.38	$ 39.97	4.27	3.03%
Feb-24	1,073,895	41.9	$ 36.04	$ 46.74	$ 39.99	4.82	3.43%
Mar-24	1,088,144	46.4	$ 33.68	$ 42.87	$ 36.59	4.64	3.38%
Apr-24	958,104	44.5	$ 33.08	$ 41.85	$ 36.10	4.59	3.34%
May-24	1,105,985	51	$ 32.10	$ 39.11	$ 34.77	4.38	3.32%
Some reporting affected by staff changes

Update on DMC and ODMAP Programs

There were no Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) Program Tier 1 payments in June, July and August, with no payments forecast for the rest of the year. The All-Milk price for June 2024 was $22.80/cwt and 22.73/cwt in July; corn was at $4.48/bushel in June and $4.29/bushel in July; Alfalfa was at $256/ton in June and $222/ton in July with soymeal at $384/ton in June and $364 in July. The margin in June 2024 was $11.14 and in July $10.32.

There are no further official updates on any next payment from the Organic Dairy Marketing Assistance Program (ODMAP) from the funds that were not used from the $105 million allocated to the program in January 2023. Approximately $84 million is remaining. In meetings with USDA FSA, they report that they have researched how to better reflect the difference in marketing costs between organic and conventional dairies. In the absence of any recent organic data to accurately reflect 2024 expenses, they have used the 2021 organic survey data to make some changes to the amount per cwt allocated. Unfortunately, it will not reach the actual marketing costs of producers who report a cost of $2.50-$2.80/cwt in the Midwest. FSA hopes that the next round of payment will be made in the next few months using 100% of their estimate of marketing costs and it will be based on 2023 milk production. The expectation is that the cap will be increased to correspond to USDA payment limitation cap per producer under the Payment Limitation Program. NODPA continues to advocate with other organizations for a rapid disbursement of all the funds allocated to the program so essential to support organic dairies across the country, with a possible third round to finish this specific program in the absence of any Farm Bill to provide much needed changes. This support for organic dairies is critical this year as there is no payment to subsidize low pay price from the conventional based Dairy Margin Program that many organic dairies enrolled in.

H5N1 avian flu

Public health teams tested workers at two Colorado egg farms and found 19 H5N1infections in poultry, as well as nine workers with mild cases of H5N1 avian flu. All nine patients reported conjunctivitis, seven reported eye tearing, and six reported subjective fever or chills. All patients reporting subjective fever or chills worked at the facility. Respiratory symptoms such as sore throat, cough, and shortness of breath were less frequently reported.

Vaccine manufacturers can now test their avian flu vaccines in field. USDA is going to allow field safety trials of manufacturers’ H5N1 vaccines for dairy cattle. USDA’s Center of Veterinary Biologics is now accepting field trial applications for H5N1 vaccines that may be conducted outside of containment without terminal disposal of milk and other commodities. The most recent dairy to test positive for H5N1 is in Michigan. While vaccines are not seen as a remedy for the H5N1 flu for poultry because of flock size and repercussions from other countries, they are regarded as a viable solution for the virus in dairy herds.

USDA announces improved scrutiny of animal raising or environmental claims

USDA announced on 8/28/2024 updated guidelines that make recommendations to strengthen the documentation that supports animal-raising or environment-related claims on meat or poultry product labeling. While this guidance falls short of farm-to-table third part requirements for all claims, the document does include the following: “As discussed below, FSIS strongly encourages the use of third-party certification to substantiate animal-raising or environment-related claims, given the limits of FSIS jurisdiction. Third-party certification of animal-raising or environment-related claims helps ensure that such claims are truthful and not misleading by having an independent organization verify that standards are being met on the farm for the raising of animals and the use of environmentally supportive practices.” Some hope that the market for organic meat may improve against unsubstantiated and outright false claims of other brands.

Organic Milk Exports

The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) releases monthly export data which includes export volumes and values for organic milk categorized as HS-10 code 0401201000. May 2024

organic milk exports were 352,263 lbs. (3,522 cwt.), up 13.7 percent from the month prior, and up 10.3 percent from 2023. In June 2024 organic milk ex­ports were 636,924 lbs. (6,369 cwt.), up 80.8 percent from the month prior, and up 6.5 percent from 2023. Exports of organic milk from the start of the year through June are up 10.7 percent, compared to the same period a year ago.

Feed

National data from USDA and Argus has organic feed corn delivered to the elevator averaging $7.30 per bushel on the east coast in August 2024, down approximately $3/bu. from 12 months prior. Organic feed soybean delivered to the elevator averaged $19.55/bu. in August 2024, down approximately $2.30/bu. from 12 months prior. Soybean meal is currently trading at $869/ton, about $110/cwt. lower than 2023 and is in high demand, with the price projected by Argus to increase. Costs of organic Alfalfa are about the same as conventional at $175 per ton which is down nearly $150 from August 2023 as reported by USDA.

Argus reports that the domestic organic corn crop looks promising except for the Southeast and parts of the Dakotas. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop condition data supports a strong crop in major growing states. The top five states for organic corn production in 2024, which are Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Nebraska according to Argus estimates, all show the proportion of the corn crop rated good to excellent above the five-year average as of 18 August 2024. The top three states each have a good to excellent percentage more than ten percentage points above the five-year average.

Wisconsin and Ohio are the only states in the Corn Belt to show the percentage of the corn crop good to excellent below the five-year average. Wisconsin is six percentage points below the five-year average, while Ohio is only two percentage points. North Carolina and South Carolina have 9% and 11% of the corn crop at good or excellent quality, which traders report is a result of high heat during the growing season.

Cool temperatures in the Dakotas could affect the organic corn crop development as temperatures in the area have remained below normal throughout much of the growing region. While the moisture profile is reported as being good, farmers would like to see higher temperatures for the crop to improve final development before harvest. In North Dakota the pace of corn development is especially delayed, with only 33% of corn acres in the dough stage of production according to USDA data, 12 points behind the five-year average.

Attached Files:

• Organic Grain and Hay prices 9-1-2024.pdf
• Pay and retail price 9-1-2024.pdf