By Ed Maltby, NODPA Executive Director
The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has published estimated national organic retail product sales for November and December 2024, compiled with data from the Federal Milk Marketing Order. In November, the data shows a continued increase in the sales of Organic Whole Milk packaged fluid products of 15.5% over November 2023, and the December data shows sales at 17.7% over December 2023. There was a 3.5% increase in Organic Fat Reduced Milk in November 2024 over November 2023, and a 2.0% increase in December 2024 over December 2023. Year to date, November 2024, organic fluid milk sales are 6.9% higher than the same period in 2023. December sales of organic packaged milk were the highest recorded since data was first collected in January 2006, with 270 million pounds shipped by milk handlers in the month, an increase of 7.2% over 2023.
Total US sales of organic fluid milk products were 249 million pounds in November 2024, with organic Whole Milk sales at 131 million pounds, and sales of organic Fat Reduced Milk at 115 million pounds. In December 2024, total sales of organic packaged milk were 270 million pounds, with sales of organic packaged Whole Milk at 147 million pounds, and sales of organic Fat Reduce Milk at 121 million pounds.
The average retail price for organic milk is recorded by Federal Milk Order market administrators based on a survey conducted one day between the 1st and 10th of each month (excluding Fridays and weekends) in selected cities or metropolitan areas. In 2008, the average retail price was $3.81/half gallon; the total volume of organic fluid milk shipped by handlers in 2008 as reported by FMMO was 1,681 million pounds and the Pay Price averaged $28.38/cwt.
By 2024, the average retail price has increased by $1 a half gallon to $4.81/ half gallon. That $1.00 increase is equivalent to $23.25/cwt. The range of retail price varies from $3.99 to $6.28 per half gallon. Pay Price to producers has increased on average by approximately $8/cwt from 2008 to 2024. Despite the increase in retail prices and the very modest increase in Pay Price, the total volume of retail packaged milk for 2024 was recorded as 3,041 million pounds, an increase of 1,365 million pounds over 2008. The data over the last 16 years shows that consumer demand has not decreased with increased retail prices. The cost of organic milk to the milk buyer averages only 30% of the retail price, therefore any increase in Pay Price has only a marginal effect on buyers’ profit margins and no effect on the growth and stability of the organic retail market. The profit margins of the milk buyers and brands depend on many variables including their negotiating skills and leverage with retailers, ability to meet retailers’ supply needs, and their ability to control overhead.
Reports from producers are that organic milk is still short in the Northeast and across the country, with spot milk as high as $48/cwt. Pay prices ranging from an annualized average of $33/cwt to $45/cwt for grain and pasture fed dairies. Grass Fed certified dairies range from $36/cwt up to $45/cwt, depending how much the buyer is paying, to reflect the increased costs and lower production of Grass Fed production. Reports are that the Midwest Pay Price is lower than the Northeast and slower to increase. The western states are still recovering from the widespread H5N1 virus and from the decision of Darigold NW to release all its organic farmers. Reports are that all but 2 have found alternative situations. CROPP Cooperative’s recently refurbished manufacturing plant remains under-utilized as supplies are tight and the coop’s presence in the Northwest has been reduced.
Estimated Fluid Milk Products Sales Reports
|
Product Name |
Sales of Organic Fluid Milk |
Change from |
||
|
|
November 2024 |
2024 Year to date |
Nov-2023 |
Year to date |
|
Million pounds |
Percent |
|||
|
Organic Whole Milk |
131 |
1,450 |
10.4% |
12.7% |
|
Flavored Whole milk |
1 |
10 |
104.8% |
10.6% |
|
Organic Reduced-Fat Milk (2%) |
82 |
887 |
10.4% |
5.6% |
|
Organic Low-Fat Milk (1%) |
19 |
227 |
-7.6% |
-8.0% |
|
Organic Fat-Free Milk Skim |
11 |
121 |
-4.3% |
-9.6% |
|
Organic Flavored Fat-Reduced Milk |
3 |
67 |
-34.1% |
-4.1% |
|
Other Fluid Organic Milk Products |
2 |
6 |
74.5% |
49.6% |
|
Total Fat Reduced Milk |
115 |
1,303 |
3.5% |
0.9% |
|
Total Organic Milk Products |
249 |
2,769 |
7.7% |
6.9% |
|
|
||||
|
Product Name |
Sales of Organic Fluid Milk |
Change from |
||
|
|
Dec-24 |
2024 Year to date |
Dec-23 |
Year to date |
|
|
Million pounds |
Percent |
||
|
Organic Whole Milk |
147 |
1,597 |
17.7% |
13.1% |
|
Flavored Whole milk |
1 |
11 |
40.8% |
12.7% |
|
Organic Reduced-Fat Milk (2%) |
87 |
974 |
7.6% |
5.8% |
|
Organic Low-Fat Milk (1%) |
20 |
247 |
-5.0% |
-7.7% |
|
Organic Fat-Free Milk Skim |
10 |
131 |
-6.0% |
-9.3% |
|
Organic Flavored Fat-Reduced Milk |
4 |
71 |
-34.5% |
-6.5% |
|
Other Fluid Organic Milk Products |
1 |
7 |
23.9% |
46.6% |
|
Total Fat Reduced Milk |
121 |
1,424 |
2.0% |
1% |
|
Total Organic Milk Products |
270 |
3,039 |
10.1% |
7.2% |
Data may not add due to rounding to the nearest million pounds
Federal Milk Marketing Order 1 (Order) reported that in December 2024, fluid Organic Whole Milk packaged and utilized within the Order totaled 18.72 million pounds; higher than the previous year of 17.70 million pounds. In December 2024, Organic Reduced Fat Milk packaged and utilized in the Order was 14.62 million pounds, down from 15.86 million pounds in December 2023. The total organic fluid milk packaged and utilized in the Order in December 2024 was 33.34 million pounds; no noticeable increase on the December 2023 total of 33.56 million pounds. All milk packaged outside the Order, but sold within the Order, increased by 6% or 3.05 million pounds in December 2024 over December 2023. This does include organic fluid milk packaged outside the Order but sold within the Order. Organic milk averages approximately 19% of the fluid milk packaged in the Order. In December 2024, there was 146.83 million pounds of fluid milk from plants fully or partially regulated by other Orders that was sold in the Order. Organic milk sold to Stonyfield/US Lactalis plant in New Hampshire is not included in this data.
In 2024, the total amount of organic packaged milk handled in FO1 was 402.16 million pounds, an increase of 1% over the total for 2023 of 399.87 million pounds. This data does not include organic packaged milk that was fully or partially regulated by other FO’s but consumed in FO 1.
In January 2025, Organic Whole Milk packaged in the Order was 17.99 million pounds, a decrease from January 2024 of 19.1 million pounds. In January 2025, Organic Reduced Fat Milk packaged in the Order was 16.31 million pounds, slightly higher than the 15.83 packaged in January 2024. Total organic milk packaged in the Order in January 2025 of 34.31 million pounds was level with the 34.93 million pounds packaged in January 2024.
|
UTILIZATION OF ORGANIC FLUID MILK PRODUCTS AND CREAM BY POOL PLANTS (Million pounds) in FMMO 1 (Northeast) not including packaged out of order |
||||||
|
Month |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2025 |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2024 |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2023 |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2022 |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2021 |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2020 |
|
JANUARY |
34.31 |
34.93 |
37.00 |
29.14 |
31.32 |
23.93 |
|
FEBRUARY |
|
31.50 |
31.65 |
33.65 |
31.56 |
26.69 |
|
MARCH |
|
34.82 |
37.37 |
31.56 |
31.87 |
27.90 |
|
APRIL |
|
35.68 |
31.51 |
33.23 |
28.97 |
29.35 |
|
MAY |
|
38.95 |
36.24 |
30.49 |
29.72 |
28.25 |
|
JUNE |
|
31.51 |
34.59 |
31.53 |
28.41 |
26.90 |
|
JULY |
|
35.54 |
31.15 |
29.44 |
25.50 |
26.70 |
|
AUGUST |
|
34.07 |
33.75 |
32.12 |
27.18 |
24.70 |
|
SEPTEMBER |
|
31.72 |
28.32 |
35.00 |
30.26 |
29.70 |
|
OCTOBER |
|
29.62 |
33.54 |
34.83 |
29.47 |
25.78 |
|
NOVEMBER |
|
30.48 |
31.19 |
31.13 |
31.07 |
24.47 |
|
DECEMBER |
|
33.34 |
33.56 |
33.78 |
31.36 |
28.13 |
|
ANNUAL |
|
402.16 |
399.87 |
385.90 |
356.68 |
322.50 |
There are 3 other FMMO’s that publish reports on the volume of Class 1 organic packaged milk in their Order, two of which report how much is ‘exported’ to other Orders. In December 2024, of the 270 million pounds packaged and sold as Class 1 organic milk in the US, approximately 157 million pounds was packaged in 4 Orders that publish reports on organic milk packaged in their Order. That leaves over 110 million pounds of organic milk that is packaged in Orders that do not publish the data on organic milk that they collect. In December 2024, Order 32 (Central) packaged more organic milk than any other order at 53.98 million pounds. Order 51 (California) packaged 40.81 in December 2024. Order 33 (Mideast) packages less than Order 1, with 26.66 million pounds. In Order 32 (Central FO where both Aurora Dairies are located), 88.5% of the organic milk packaged in 2024 (558.25 million pounds) was ‘exported’ to other Orders.
UTILIZATION OF ORGANIC FLUID MILK PRODUCTS AND CREAM BY POOL PLANTS (Million pounds) in FMMO 32 (Central)
|
Month |
2024 |
2024 in order |
2024 out of order |
2023 |
2023 in order |
2023 out of order |
|
January |
56.23 |
6.41 |
49.82 |
55.21 |
6.51 |
48.70 |
|
February |
51.88 |
5.77 |
46.12 |
49.11 |
5.49 |
43.63 |
|
March |
53.96 |
5.93 |
46.29 |
52.73 |
5.59 |
45.44 |
|
April |
54.13 |
6.04 |
48.09 |
49.18 |
5.64 |
43.53 |
|
May |
51.32 |
5.81 |
45.51 |
48.21 |
5.40 |
42.78 |
|
June |
52.56 |
5.51 |
47.04 |
45.20 |
5.57 |
39.63 |
|
July |
52.68 |
5.63 |
47.04 |
48.45 |
5.70 |
42.75 |
|
August |
55.63 |
6.26 |
49.37 |
48.47 |
5.63 |
42.85 |
|
September |
50.68 |
5.41 |
45.27 |
48.76 |
5.58 |
43.18 |
|
October |
50.36 |
5.89 |
44.47 |
49.73 |
5.65 |
42.48 |
|
November |
48.04 |
5.99 |
42.04 |
49.60 |
5.48 |
44.12 |
|
December |
53.98 |
6.73 |
47.21 |
54.17 |
6.08 |
48.10 |
|
Total |
631.45 |
71.39 |
558.25 |
598.82 |
68.31 |
527.18 |
This initiative is part of a new pilot program in partnership with the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Market News to collect organic market data for the 2023/2024 growing seasons which are reported monthly. It is difficult to draw any conclusions from this data but it does show a wide spread on Pay Price and daily production per cow.
The Vermont Report has published a year of data. While the sample size is relatively small and the sample includes Grass Fed dairies, the weighted average Pay Price is $36.04/cwt over 12 months, with a range from $31.39/cwt to $41.71/cwt (does not include any deductions for hauling). The average daily production per cow averages 41.81lbs./cow. The milk buyers in Vermont are CROPP Cooperative, US Lactalis direct supply, and Upstate Niagara.
|
Month |
Volume(lbs.) |
Ave. daily production per cow (lbs.) |
Min Price |
Max Price |
Weighted Av Price |
Ave. Butterfat |
Ave. Protein |
Avg Monthly Production/cow (lbs.) |
|
Nov-23 |
1,155,583 |
39.6 |
$ 27.92 |
$ 43.60 |
$ 37.01 |
|
|
|
|
Dec-23 |
1,227,212 |
39.3 |
$ 27.92 |
$ 47.13 |
$ 39.70 |
|
|
|
|
Jan-24 |
1,224,497 |
40.2 |
$ 35.00 |
$ 47.38 |
$ 39.97 |
4.21% |
3.03% |
1,246 |
|
Feb-24 |
1,073,895 |
41.9 |
$ 36.04 |
$ 46.74 |
$ 39.99 |
4.82% |
3.43% |
1,299 |
|
Mar-24 |
1,088,144 |
46.4 |
$ 33.68 |
$ 42.87 |
$ 36.59 |
4.64% |
3.38% |
1,139 |
|
Apr-24 |
958,104 |
44.5 |
$ 33.08 |
$ 41.85 |
$ 36.10 |
4.59% |
3.34% |
1,239 |
|
May-24 |
1,105,985 |
51 |
$ 32.10 |
$ 39.11 |
$ 34.77 |
4.38% |
3.32% |
1,580 |
|
Jun-24 |
860,631 |
50.7 |
$ 31.65 |
$ 39.10 |
$ 34.00 |
4.20% |
3.22% |
1,541 |
|
Jul-24 |
1,013,388 |
48.4 |
$ 30.70 |
$ 37.06 |
$ 33.00 |
3.99% |
3.13% |
1,500 |
|
Aug-24 |
1,169,419 |
47.8 |
$ 31.49 |
$ 38.79 |
$ 33.00 |
4.03% |
3.21% |
1,482 |
|
Sep-24 |
1,066,596 |
48.3 |
$ 29.50 |
$ 38.75 |
$ 34.39 |
4.09% |
3.29% |
1,449 |
|
Oct-24 |
1,066,596 |
46.5 |
$ 29.50 |
$ 38.75 |
$ 34.08 |
4.39% |
3.37% |
1,443 |
|
Nov-24 |
1,411,221 |
42.69 |
$ 29.50 |
$ 41.06 |
$ 35.90 |
4.45% |
3.34% |
1,280 |
The data from PA has not been collected for as long as the VT data. It does show a very wide range of Pay Price from a low of $25.05/cwt to a high of $45.95/cwt. The average over the 6-month period is $34.70, lower than the Pay Price shown for VT. The average daily production per cow for the 6-month period is 30.06 pounds, 10 pounds lower than the VT average.
|
Month |
Volume(lbs.) |
Ave. daily production per cow (lbs.) |
Min Price |
Max Price |
Weighted Av Price |
Ave. Butterfat |
Ave. Protein |
|
Jun-24 |
1,331,605 |
31.23 |
$ 25.05 |
$ 41.74 |
$ 33.57 |
3.98% |
3.07% |
|
Jul-24 |
1,170,262 |
27.9 |
$ 25.50 |
$ 41.43 |
$ 33.55 |
3.88% |
2.99% |
|
Aug-24 |
1,167,928 |
27.93 |
$ 28.45 |
$ 42.32 |
$ 34.60 |
3.99% |
3.11% |
|
Sep-24 |
1,268,946 |
30.76 |
$ 28.70 |
$ 43.22 |
$ 35.61 |
4.17% |
3.30% |
|
Oct-24 |
1,299,953 |
28.8 |
$ 25.85 |
$ 45.95 |
$ 35.01 |
4.41% |
3.39% |
|
Nov-24 |
1,243,522 |
33.75 |
$ 28.80 |
$ 44.05 |
$ 35.88 |
4.49% |
3.40% |
Recently released data for November and December 2024 indicated organic milk exports were 11,407cwt and 8,997cwt respectively, ending the year up by 28,037 cwt compared to 2023, an increase of approximately 55% year over year. This compares to 2019 totals of 88,988 cwt and 2020 totals of 43,677 cwt in exports under this description, code #0401201000. In 2019, 71% of the exports went to North America (not including the US) and in 2024, 61% of the exports went to North America. The data suggests that COVID had a significant effect on exports under this product category which has now been corrected but I am unaware of the changes in organic dairy in Canada that would have also affected this market. What is the future of this market as supply tightens, tariffs come and go and the USMCA is up for renegotiation in 2026 with President Trump already threatening tougher negotiations on dairy?
|
EXPORTS OF MILK AND CREAM, NOT CONCENTRATED NOR SWEETENED, OF A FAT CONTENT, BY WEIGHT, EXCEEDING 1% BUT NOT EXCEEDING 6%, CERTIFIED ORGANIC 2021-2024 (data in US CWT). |
||||
|
|
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
|
|
493 |
2,358 |
3,639 |
2,643 |
|
February |
708 |
2,342 |
2,911 |
5,352 |
|
March |
365 |
4,379 |
3,695 |
2,998 |
|
April |
2,421 |
2,896 |
2,249 |
3,093 |
|
May |
2,389 |
2,601 |
3,188 |
3,518 |
|
June |
3,368 |
2,832 |
5,975 |
6,360 |
|
July |
2,443 |
3,192 |
5,562 |
11,930 |
|
August |
4,114 |
2,424 |
6,919 |
6,604 |
|
September |
4,227 |
3,236 |
3,578 |
6,096 |
|
October |
4,260 |
3,275 |
5,691 |
10,538 |
|
November |
4,290 |
3,577 |
3,720 |
11,407 |
|
December |
2,595 |
3,051 |
4,373 |
8,997 |
|
Annual Total in cwt |
31,671 |
36,163 |
51,499 |
79,536 |
|
Dollar value |
$ 2,865,000 |
$ 1,927,000 |
$ 3,006,000 |
$ 3,646,000 |
With USDA reports of a 70 year low in all dairy heifer replacements, reports from producers, phone calls to NODPA and from those advertising on NODPA’s website and in the NODPA News, demand for organic certified cows and heifers is very strong, with prices paid equal to and exceeding conventional dairy replacements, $2,500 per head and higher. Hoskins Livestock Auction, a NOFA-NY-certified livestock auction in New Berlin, New York, reports that organic cull cows consistently sold above conventional cows in January and February 2025. The average price for conventional cull cows ranged from a low of $97/cwt to a high of $125 /cwt in January and February 2025. Organic certified cull cow prices ranged from $98/cwt to $130/cwt. Calf prices are still strong but there is no premium for organic. Organic milking cows were selling well at an average of $1,500-$3,900 each in January and February 2025. In a recent report from a Pacific Northwest livestock auction, USDA stated the overall average for organic cull cow prices traded lower than the overall average for conventional cull cows. The average price for the top 10 organic cows auctioned was $131.89 per hundredweight, compared to an average price of $159.07 per hundredweight for the top 10 conventional cows auctioned. The average weight for the top 10 conventional cows was 15.40 cwt. compared to 13.55 cwt. for the top 10 organic cows. The overall price for organic cows auctioned was $112.66 per hundredweight with an average weight of 11.75 cwt. pounds, while the overall price for conventional cows auctioned was $120.35 per hundredweight with an average weight of 12.45cwt.
The USDA NOP has increased its enforcement of requirements for tracking of organic livestock either at auction or straight to slaughter to correct abuses in the system that had many non-certified animals being sold or slaughtered as organic. A reminder that organic livestock do not need to be shipped separately from non-organic when they are trucked to auction or direct to slaughter. They need to be identified clearly as organic with all the correct paperwork.
National data from USDA has organic feed corn delivered to the elevator averaging $7.41 per bushel in January 2025 and $7.18 per bushel in February 2025. Organic feed soybean delivered to the elevator averaged $20.22/bu. in January 2025 and $20.90 in February 2025. Organic feed wheat averaged $6.88/bushel in February 2025. Soybean meal was trading at $888/ton in January 2025 and $895/ton in February 2025. Costs for organic Premium Alfalfa are about the same as conventional, at $260 -$325 per ton.
Attached Files:
Posted: to Organic Pay, Feed & Grain Prices on Fri, Mar 14, 2025
Updated: Sun, Mar 16, 2025
