By Ed Maltby, NODPA Executive Director
The harsh reality of the effects of the drought are hitting home for organic dairy producers, especially those in New England and western and northeastern New York. Milk buyers need to step up with an increase in Pay Price for those most affected. While a regional Market Adjustment Premium (MAP) for 6 months is not feasible because of the variation in climate and growing conditions, even within the northeast, milk buyers are the only source of support for producers, some of whom are paying $600 a ton for hay and transport after feeding their winter supply during the summer.
What is at stake is not just a drop in supply from lower production but animal welfare and the future of many organic dairies. Culling has already started as producers anticipate trouble cash flowing the extra expense of purchasing and transporting scarce supplies of organic hay and other feed. As always, with the unpredictable cash expenses, whether they be from Covid, the price for soybeans tripling, increase in the price of fuel or, as in this case, excessive extremes of weather, it will be the small to mid-size operations that will be the hardest hit and the least able to survive the cash flow deficits.
Why should producers be asking milk buyers for specific payment for increased costs of forage for climate related problems? Pay Price has been increased by nearly all buyers to a level that now covers most operational and fixed costs. These increases may now be mitigating the effect of rising costs experienced by all small businesses in 2025, BUT, this climate disaster is extreme enough in its impact that they are not enough to address its effect.
The federal government is usually a source for supply side payments with established programs like Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees and Farm–Raised Fish Program (ELAP). ELAP has previously paid trucking costs for feed when the price of diesel was high. ELAP is an important part of the ODairy Act 2025 which was submitted to the Senate with suggested changes to the program within the Act that would make it easier for organic dairy operations to apply. It is unlikely that Congress will allocate funds in response to a regional drought in the Northeast, despite previous commitments of significant financial support to commodity programs.
Some states in New England have responded in the past to these cash flow requests to maintain organic dairies as they recognize them as an essential component of a thriving rural infrastructure and community. But in 2025/2026 they have many different priorities, and organic dairies will come low on the list.
Lenders might respond to requests for extended lines of credit, but they must see a way in which the loans can be serviced without decimating the farm’s equity base. Producers should not have to start down the slippery slope of committing all their equity to operating costs, even if their lenders permit it.
Organic milk buyers, whether cooperatives, multi-nationals or investment companies, need only view the history of the last 5 years to see the effect of losing their supply base. With a marketplace that is tight on fluid milk and in deficit supply on cultured products, there is a strong case to maintain or increase supply by recognizing the impact of the drought and supporting their commercial interests and the Northeast farm families who are an integral part of the organic supply.
Each farm operation is unique, and a direct per cwt payment allows the farm family to implement solutions most applicable to their size, certification, asset base and cash flow. A traditional MAP can only be applied across the board which would not reflect the distinct 2025 weather differences within the northeast region. A per cwt individual market adjustment payment direct to the producer would contribute to the solution, preventing a disaster but does not provide a complete answer. We will not know what the real costs are until 2026, when promised surveys will provide real-time information.
Historical information we have from surveys completed in 2024 can contribute to producer’s justification for the short term increased payment per cwt. For the Grass Fed certified, the article “Cost of Production on Grass-fed Dairy Farms in the Northeast in 2023” (published in the January 2025 NODPA News) by Heather Darby, Sara Ziegler & Sarah Flack gives some insight into the economics of the small to mid-size operations in the Northeast. The need to purchase extra forage for 72.3% of producers to meet an average of 36.4% of their forage needs has been a common theme since a 2019 survey as they work to maintain a quality ration. The average cost of the purchased forage over all survey participants was $4.00 per cwt, with lower-cost-of-production farms at $5.32 per cwt. The 2025 drought has caused Grass-Fed producers, and most all organic dairy producers in the NE, to graze less and feed more preserved forage during the summer months and then many have needed to purchase higher priced forage from dealers with higher trucking costs.
Non Grass-Fed certified operations have more flexibility in the type of feed they can use in their ration but they have also been affected by the wet spring and long drought, reducing quality of preserved forage and less productive pasture, in some cases pasture turning brown or stands hurt by long term flooding/waterlogging. The 2023 Production and Financial Benchmarks for New York Organic Dairies (published in the November 2024 NODPA News) by Mary Kate MacKenzie, Farm Business Management Specialist, PRO-DAIRY, Department of Animal Science, Cornell University, provides information on cost of production for reference purposes. The wide range and comprehensive report showed that in 2023, the average purchase of dairy grain, concentrate and forage was $10.14 per cwt of milk. In 2025, there was no income from Dairy Margin Coverage or from Organic Dairy Marketing Assistance Program which averaged $4.46 per cwt. in 2023.
Producers need to talk with their buyers about their need for an individual market adjustment payment if they have experienced the effects of the drought. The sooner that you can communicate with them, in writing, the impact of the drought on your operation the better. Incidentally, you should have already applied to your certifier for a variance, so the certifier can deal with it as soon as the NOP is back in business. Individual or group conversations with your field manager or rep could be a good starting point so long as the message get passed up to management. Your problems are their problems.
Producers cannot predict what the future cost of forage might be as we don’t have that data in a tight supply market. We definitely do not know what the weather will be doing this winter and whether there will be seasonably appropriate early spring weather. We do know decisions are being made on culling, breeding and rations that will affect the future supply and productivity of organic dairies in the Northeast.
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Posted: to Industry News on Sat, Nov 15, 2025
Updated: Sat, Nov 15, 2025
